Introduction. In 2024, Russia recorded a rise in the number of private universities – a trend not seen in the country for more than a decade. In addition, the number of students enrolled in these institutions is also increasing. Particularly rapid is the growth in enrollment in private universities offering secondary vocational education programs, the number of which has doubled over the past two years. Moreover, non-state universities are showing higher growth rates in R&D (research and development) compared to public institutions. However, in light of upcoming demographic changes among youth – as projected by RANEPA, Rosstat, and IIASA (the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) – and considering the trend of a growing proportion of 9thgrade graduates entering colleges and technical schools, the question arises: what are the most promising areas of activity for private universities in the coming years?
Aim. To identify potential promising directions for the development of private universities in Russia.
Methods: In preparing this publication, the authors used two key research methods: statistical analysis and modeling. The information sources included consolidated forms of federal statistical observation No. VPO-1, No. SPO-1, and No. OO-1; population forecasts by single-year age groups up to 2040 developed by a group of researchers from RANEPA; data from Rosstat; and informational-analytical materials based on the results of university performance monitoring.
Results. The expected decline in the number of young people aged 15–19 –the main potential university applicants – in the 2030s highlights the need for private universities to expand the implementation of higher education programmes in fields that are in demand in the labour market, as well as to increase the number of secondary and continuing professional education programmes. A shift toward scientific research is advisable only for a specific cohort of non-state universities that were either originally established for such purposes or have since proven themselves in this area.
Scientific novelty. The study identifies potential promising directions for the development of private universities in Russia.
Practical significance. The results of the study can be used by university leadership when making strategic decisions regarding the selection of promising development directions for private universities in Russia.